Normal Log-Likelihood Functions and their Partials

Normal Log-Likelihood Functions and their Partials

The complete normal likelihood function (without the constant) is composed of three summation portions:

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \ln (L)= & \Lambda =\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}\ln \left[ \frac{1}{\sigma }\phi \left( \frac{{{T}_{i}}-\mu }{\sigma } \right) \right] \\ & +\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{^{\prime }}\ln \left[ 1-\Phi \left( \frac{T_{i}^{^{\prime }}-\mu }{\sigma } \right) \right] \\ & \text{ }+\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{i}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{^{\prime \prime }}\ln \left[ \Phi \left( \frac{T_{{{R}_{i}}}^{^{\prime \prime }}-\mu }{\sigma } \right)-\Phi \left( \frac{T_{{{L}_{i}}}^{^{\prime \prime }}-\mu }{\sigma } \right) \right] \end{align} }[/math]

where:

• [math]\displaystyle{ {{F}_{e}} }[/math] is the number of groups of times-to-failure data points

• [math]\displaystyle{ {{N}_{i}} }[/math] is the number of times-to-failure in the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] time-to-failure data group

• [math]\displaystyle{ \mu }[/math] is the mean parameter (unknown a priori, the first of two parameters to be found)

• [math]\displaystyle{ \sigma }[/math] is the standard deviation parameter (unknown a priori, the second of two parameters to be found)

• [math]\displaystyle{ {{T}_{i}} }[/math] is the time of the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] group of time-to-failure data

• [math]\displaystyle{ S }[/math] is the number of groups of suspension data points

• [math]\displaystyle{ N_{i}^{\prime } }[/math] is the number of suspensions in the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] group of suspension data points

• [math]\displaystyle{ T_{i}^{\prime } }[/math] is the time of the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] suspension data group

• [math]\displaystyle{ {{F}_{i}} }[/math] is the number of interval data groups

• [math]\displaystyle{ N_{i}^{\prime \prime } }[/math] is the number of intervals in the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] group of data intervals

• [math]\displaystyle{ T_{Li}^{\prime \prime } }[/math] is the beginning of the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] interval

• and [math]\displaystyle{ T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime } }[/math] is the ending of the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] interval

The solution will be found by solving for a pair of parameters [math]\displaystyle{ \left( {{\mu }_{0}},{{\sigma }_{0}} \right) }[/math] so that [math]\displaystyle{ \tfrac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial \mu }=0 }[/math] and [math]\displaystyle{ \tfrac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial \sigma }=0. }[/math]

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \frac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial \mu }= & \frac{1}{{{\sigma }^{2}}}\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}({{T}_{i}}-\mu ) \\ & +\frac{1}{\sigma }\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }\frac{\phi \left( \tfrac{T_{i}^{\prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)}{1-\Phi \left( \tfrac{T_{i}^{\prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)} \\ & -\frac{1}{\sigma }\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{i}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\frac{\phi \left( \tfrac{T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)-\phi \left( \tfrac{T_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)}{\Phi \left( \tfrac{T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)-\Phi \left( \tfrac{T_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)} \end{align} }[/math]

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \frac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial \sigma }= & \underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}\left( \frac{{{\left( {{T}_{i}}-\mu \right)}^{2}}}{{{\sigma }^{3}}}-\frac{1}{\sigma } \right) \\ & +\frac{1}{\sigma }\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }\frac{\left( \tfrac{T_{i}^{\prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)\phi \left( \tfrac{T_{i}^{\prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)}{1-\Phi \left( \tfrac{T_{i}^{\prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)} \\ & -\frac{1}{\sigma }\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{i}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\frac{\left( \tfrac{T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)\phi \left( \tfrac{T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)-\left( \tfrac{T_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)\phi \left( \tfrac{T_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)}{\Phi \left( \tfrac{T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)-\Phi \left( \tfrac{T_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-\mu }{\sigma } \right)} \end{align} }[/math]

where:

[math]\displaystyle{ \phi \left( x \right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi }}{{e}^{-\tfrac{1}{2}{{\left( x \right)}^{2}}}} }[/math]

and:

[math]\displaystyle{ \Phi (x)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi }}\int_{-\infty }^{x}{{e}^{-\tfrac{{{t}^{2}}}{2}}}dt }[/math]

Complete Data

Note that for the normal distribution, and in the case of complete data only (as was shown in Chapter 3), there exists a closed-form solution for both of the parameters or:

[math]\displaystyle{ \widehat{\mu }=\widehat{{\bar{T}}}=\frac{1}{N}\underset{i=1}{\overset{N}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{T}_{i}} }[/math]

and:

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \hat{\sigma }_{T}^{2}= & \frac{1}{N}\underset{i=1}{\overset{N}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{({{T}_{i}}-\bar{T})}^{2}} \\ {{{\hat{\sigma }}}_{T}}= & \sqrt{\frac{1}{N}\underset{i=1}{\overset{N}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{({{T}_{i}}-\bar{T})}^{2}}} \end{align} }[/math]