Template:Eyring-log mle

Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method

The complete Eyring-lognormal log-likelihood function is composed of two summation portions:

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} & \ln (L)= & \Lambda =\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}\ln \left[ \frac{1}{{{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}{{T}_{i}}}\phi \left( \frac{\ln \left( {{T}_{i}} \right)+\ln ({{V}_{i}})+A-\tfrac{B}{{{V}_{i}}}}{{{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}} \right) \right] \text{ }+\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }\ln \left[ 1-\Phi \left( \frac{\ln \left( T_{i}^{\prime } \right)+\ln ({{V}_{i}})+A-\tfrac{B}{{{V}_{i}}}}{{{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}} \right) \right] +\overset{FI}{\mathop{\underset{i=1}{\mathop{\underset{}{\overset{}{\mathop \sum }}\,}}\,}}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\ln [\Phi (z_{Ri}^{\prime \prime })-\Phi (z_{Li}^{\prime \prime })] \end{align} }[/math]

where:

[math]\displaystyle{ z_{Li}^{\prime \prime }=\frac{\ln T_{Li}^{\prime \prime }+\ln {{V}_{i}}+A-\tfrac{B}{{{V}_{i}}}}{\sigma _{T}^{\prime }} }[/math]

[math]\displaystyle{ z_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }=\frac{\ln T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }+\ln {{V}_{i}}+A-\tfrac{B}{{{V}_{i}}}}{\sigma _{T}^{\prime }} }[/math]

and:
• [math]\displaystyle{ {{F}_{e}} }[/math] is the number of groups of exact times-to-failure data points.
• [math]\displaystyle{ {{N}_{i}} }[/math] is the number of times-to-failure data points in the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] time-to-failure data group.
• [math]\displaystyle{ {{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}} }[/math] is the standard deviation of the natural logarithm of the times-to-failure (unknown, the first of three parameters to be estimated).
• [math]\displaystyle{ A }[/math] is the Eyring parameter (unknown, the second of three parameters to be estimated).
• [math]\displaystyle{ C }[/math] is the second Eyring parameter (unknown, the third of three parameters to be estimated).
• [math]\displaystyle{ {{V}_{i}} }[/math] is the stress level of the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] group.
• [math]\displaystyle{ {{T}_{i}} }[/math] is the exact failure time of the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] group.
• [math]\displaystyle{ S }[/math] is the number of groups of suspension data points.
• [math]\displaystyle{ N_{i}^{\prime } }[/math] is the number of suspensions in the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] group of suspension data points.
• [math]\displaystyle{ T_{i}^{\prime } }[/math] is the running time of the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] suspension data group.
• [math]\displaystyle{ FI }[/math] is the number of interval data groups.
• [math]\displaystyle{ N_{i}^{\prime \prime } }[/math] is the number of intervals in the i [math]\displaystyle{ ^{th} }[/math] group of data intervals.
• [math]\displaystyle{ T_{Li}^{\prime \prime } }[/math] is the beginning of the i [math]\displaystyle{ ^{th} }[/math] interval.
• [math]\displaystyle{ T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime } }[/math] is the ending of the i [math]\displaystyle{ ^{th} }[/math] interval. The solution (parameter estimates) will be found by solving for [math]\displaystyle{ {{\widehat{\sigma }}_{{{T}'}}}, }[/math] [math]\displaystyle{ \widehat{A}, }[/math] [math]\displaystyle{ \widehat{B} }[/math] so that [math]\displaystyle{ \tfrac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial {{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}}=0, }[/math] [math]\displaystyle{ \tfrac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial A}=0 }[/math] and [math]\displaystyle{ \tfrac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial B}=0 }[/math] :

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} & \frac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial A}= & -\frac{1}{\sigma _{{{T}'}}^{2}}\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}(\ln ({{T}_{i}})+\ln ({{V}_{i}})+A-\frac{B}{{{V}_{i}}}) -\frac{1}{{{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}}\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }\frac{\phi \left( \tfrac{\ln \left( T_{i}^{\prime } \right)+\ln ({{V}_{i}})+A-\tfrac{B}{{{V}_{i}}}}{{{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}} \right)}{1-\Phi \left( \tfrac{\ln \left( T_{i}^{\prime } \right)+\ln ({{V}_{i}})+A-\tfrac{B}{{{V}_{i}}}}{{{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}} \right)} \overset{FI}{\mathop{+\underset{i=1}{\mathop{\underset{}{\overset{}{\mathop \sum }}\,}}\,}}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\frac{\varphi (z_{Ri}^{\prime \prime })-\varphi (z_{Li}^{\prime \prime })}{\sigma _{T}^{\prime }(\Phi (z_{Ri}^{\prime \prime })-\Phi (z_{Li}^{\prime \prime }))} \end{align} }[/math]

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} & \frac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial B}= \frac{1}{\sigma _{{{T}'}}^{2}}\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}\frac{1}{{{V}_{i}}}(\ln ({{T}_{i}})+\ln ({{V}_{i}})+A-\frac{B}{{{V}_{i}}}) +\frac{1}{{{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}}\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }\frac{1}{{{V}_{i}}}\frac{\phi \left( \tfrac{\ln \left( T_{i}^{\prime } \right)+\ln ({{V}_{i}})+A-\tfrac{B}{{{V}_{i}}}}{{{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}} \right)}{1-\Phi \left( \tfrac{\ln \left( T_{i}^{\prime } \right)+\ln ({{V}_{i}})+A-\tfrac{B}{{{V}_{i}}}}{{{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}} \right)} \overset{FI}{\mathop{\underset{i=1}{\mathop{-\underset{}{\overset{}{\mathop \sum }}\,}}\,}}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\frac{\varphi (z_{Ri}^{\prime \prime })-\varphi (z_{Li}^{\prime \prime })}{\sigma _{T}^{\prime }{{V}_{i}}(\Phi (z_{Ri}^{\prime \prime })-\Phi (z_{Li}^{\prime \prime }))} \\ & \frac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial {{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}}= \underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}\left( \frac{{{\left( \ln ({{T}_{i}})+\ln ({{V}_{i}})+A-\tfrac{B}{{{V}_{i}}} \right)}^{2}}}{\sigma _{{{T}'}}^{3}}-\frac{1}{{{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}} \right) +\frac{1}{{{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}}\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }\frac{\left( \tfrac{\ln \left( T_{i}^{\prime } \right)+\ln ({{V}_{i}})+A-\tfrac{B}{{{V}_{i}}}}{{{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}} \right)\phi \left( \tfrac{\ln \left( T_{i}^{\prime } \right)+\ln ({{V}_{i}})+A-\tfrac{B}{{{V}_{i}}}}{{{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}} \right)}{1-\Phi \left( \tfrac{\ln \left( T_{i}^{\prime } \right)+\ln ({{V}_{i}})+A-\tfrac{B}{{{V}_{i}}}}{{{\sigma }_{{{T}'}}}} \right)} \overset{FI}{\mathop{\underset{i=1}{\mathop{-\underset{}{\overset{}{\mathop \sum }}\,}}\,}}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\frac{z_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }\varphi (z_{Ri}^{\prime \prime })-z_{Li}^{\prime \prime }\varphi (z_{Li}^{\prime \prime })}{\sigma _{T}^{\prime }(\Phi (z_{Ri}^{\prime \prime })-\Phi (z_{Li}^{\prime \prime }))} \end{align} }[/math]

and:

[math]\displaystyle{ \phi \left( x \right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi }}\cdot {{e}^{-\tfrac{1}{2}{{\left( x \right)}^{2}}}} }[/math]

[math]\displaystyle{ \Phi (x)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi }}\mathop{}_{-\infty }^{x}{{e}^{-\tfrac{{{t}^{2}}}{2}}}dt }[/math]