Template:Acb on the mean life

Confidence Bounds on the Mean Life

The Arrhenius-exponential distribution is given by Eqn. (arrhenius) by setting [math]\displaystyle{ m=L(V) }[/math] as shown in Eqn. (Arrean). The upper [math]\displaystyle{ ({{m}_{U}}) }[/math] and lower [math]\displaystyle{ ({{m}_{L}}) }[/math] bounds on the mean life are then estimated by:

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} & {{m}_{U}}= & \widehat{m}\cdot {{e}^{\tfrac{{{K}_{\alpha }}\sqrt{Var(\widehat{m})}}{\widehat{m}}}} \\ & {{m}_{L}}= & \widehat{m}\cdot {{e}^{-\tfrac{{{K}_{\alpha }}\sqrt{Var(\widehat{m})}}{\widehat{m}}}} \end{align} }[/math]

where [math]\displaystyle{ {{K}_{\alpha }} }[/math] is defined by:

[math]\displaystyle{ \alpha =\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi }}\mathop{}_{{{K}_{\alpha }}}^{\infty }{{e}^{-\tfrac{{{t}^{2}}}{2}}}dt=1-\Phi ({{K}_{\alpha }}) }[/math]

If [math]\displaystyle{ \delta }[/math] is the confidence level (i.e., 95%=0.95), then [math]\displaystyle{ \alpha =\tfrac{1-\delta }{2} }[/math] for the two-sided bounds, and [math]\displaystyle{ \alpha =1-\delta }[/math] for the one-sided bounds. The variance of [math]\displaystyle{ \widehat{m} }[/math] is given by:

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} & Var(\widehat{m})= & {{\left( \frac{\partial m}{\partial C} \right)}^{2}}Var(\widehat{C})+{{\left( \frac{\partial m}{\partial B} \right)}^{2}}Var(\widehat{B}) \\ & & +2\left( \frac{\partial m}{\partial C} \right)\left( \frac{\partial m}{\partial B} \right)Cov(\widehat{B},\widehat{C}) \end{align} }[/math]

or:

[math]\displaystyle{ Var(\widehat{m})={{e}^{\tfrac{2\widehat{B}}{V}}}\left[ Var(\widehat{C})+\frac{{{\widehat{C}}^{2}}}{{{V}^{2}}}Var(\widehat{B})+\frac{2\widehat{C}}{V}Cov(\widehat{B},\widehat{C}) \right] }[/math]

The variances and covariance of [math]\displaystyle{ B }[/math] and [math]\displaystyle{ C }[/math] are estimated from the local Fisher matrix (evaluated at [math]\displaystyle{ \widehat{B} }[/math] , [math]\displaystyle{ \widehat{C}) }[/math] as follows:

[math]\displaystyle{ \left[ \begin{matrix} Var(\widehat{B}) & Cov(\widehat{B},\widehat{C}) \\ Cov(\widehat{C},\widehat{B}) & Var(\widehat{C}) \\ \end{matrix} \right]={{\left[ \begin{matrix} -\tfrac{{{\partial }^{2}}\Lambda }{\partial {{B}^{2}}} & -\tfrac{{{\partial }^{2}}\Lambda }{\partial B\partial C} \\ -\tfrac{{{\partial }^{2}}\Lambda }{\partial C\partial B} & -\tfrac{{{\partial }^{2}}\Lambda }{\partial {{C}^{2}}} \\ \end{matrix} \right]}^{-1}} }[/math]