Template:Ipl ex mle: Difference between revisions

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(Created page with '====Maximum Likelihood Parameter Estimation==== <br> Substituting the inverse power law relationship into the exponential log-likelihood equation yields: <br> ::<math>\begin{ali…')
 
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::<math>\begin{align}
::<math>\begin{align}
   & \ln (L)= & \Lambda =\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}\ln \left[ KV_{i}^{n}{{e}^{-KV_{i}^{n}{{T}_{i}}}} \right] \\
   & \ln (L)= \Lambda =\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}\ln \left[ KV_{i}^{n}{{e}^{-KV_{i}^{n}{{T}_{i}}}} \right] -\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }KV_{i}^{n}T_{i}^{\prime }+\overset{FI}{\mathop{\underset{i=1}{\mathop{\underset{}{\overset{}{\mathop \sum }}\,}}\,}}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\ln [R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }]   
&  & -\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }KV_{i}^{n}T_{i}^{\prime }+\overset{FI}{\mathop{\underset{i=1}{\mathop{\underset{}{\overset{}{\mathop \sum }}\,}}\,}}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\ln [R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }]   
\end{align}</math>
\end{align}</math>


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• <math>{{F}_{e}}</math>  is the number of groups of exact times-to-failure data points.
• <math>{{F}_{e}}</math>  is the number of groups of exact times-to-failure data points.
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::<math>\begin{align}
::<math>\begin{align}
   & \frac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial K}= & \frac{1}{K}\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}-\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}V_{i}^{n}{{T}_{i}}-\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }V_{i}^{n}T_{i}^{\prime } \\
   & \frac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial K}= & \frac{1}{K}\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}-\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}V_{i}^{n}{{T}_{i}}-\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }V_{i}^{n}T_{i}^{\prime } \overset{FI}{\mathop{\underset{i=1}{\mathop{-\underset{}{\overset{}{\mathop \sum }}\,}}\,}}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\frac{\left( T_{Li}^{\prime \prime }R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime } \right)V_{i}^{n}}{R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }}   
&  & \overset{FI}{\mathop{\underset{i=1}{\mathop{-\underset{}{\overset{}{\mathop \sum }}\,}}\,}}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\frac{\left( T_{Li}^{\prime \prime }R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime } \right)V_{i}^{n}}{R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }}   
\end{align}</math>
\end{align}</math>


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::<math>\begin{align}
::<math>\begin{align}
   & \frac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial n}= & \underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}\ln ({{V}_{i}})-K\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}V_{i}^{n}\ln ({{V}_{i}}){{T}_{i}} \\
   & \frac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial n}= & \underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}\ln ({{V}_{i}})-K\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}V_{i}^{n}\ln ({{V}_{i}}){{T}_{i}} -K\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }V_{i}^{n}\ln ({{V}_{i}})T_{i}^{\prime } \overset{FI}{\mathop{\underset{i=1}{\mathop{-\underset{}{\overset{}{\mathop \sum }}\,}}\,}}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\frac{KV_{i}^{n}\ln ({{V}_{i}})\left( T_{Li}{\prime \prime }R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime } \right)}{R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }}   
&  & -K\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }V_{i}^{n}\ln ({{V}_{i}})T_{i}^{\prime } \\
&  & \overset{FI}{\mathop{\underset{i=1}{\mathop{-\underset{}{\overset{}{\mathop \sum }}\,}}\,}}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\frac{KV_{i}^{n}\ln ({{V}_{i}})\left( T_{Li}^{\prime \prime }R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime } \right)}{R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }}   
\end{align}</math>
\end{align}</math>


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Revision as of 17:34, 15 February 2012

Maximum Likelihood Parameter Estimation


Substituting the inverse power law relationship into the exponential log-likelihood equation yields:


[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} & \ln (L)= \Lambda =\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}\ln \left[ KV_{i}^{n}{{e}^{-KV_{i}^{n}{{T}_{i}}}} \right] -\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }KV_{i}^{n}T_{i}^{\prime }+\overset{FI}{\mathop{\underset{i=1}{\mathop{\underset{}{\overset{}{\mathop \sum }}\,}}\,}}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\ln [R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }] \end{align} }[/math]


where:


[math]\displaystyle{ R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }={{e}^{-T_{Li}^{\prime \prime }KV_{i}^{n}}} }[/math]


[math]\displaystyle{ R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }={{e}^{-T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }KV_{i}^{n}}} }[/math]


and:
[math]\displaystyle{ {{F}_{e}} }[/math] is the number of groups of exact times-to-failure data points.
[math]\displaystyle{ {{N}_{i}} }[/math] is the number of times-to-failure in the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] time-to-failure data group.
[math]\displaystyle{ {{V}_{i}} }[/math] is the stress level of the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] group.
[math]\displaystyle{ K }[/math] is the IPL parameter (unknown, the first of two parameters to be estimated).
[math]\displaystyle{ n }[/math] is the second IPL parameter (unknown, the second of two parameters to be estimated).
[math]\displaystyle{ {{T}_{i}} }[/math] is the exact failure time of the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] group.
[math]\displaystyle{ S }[/math] is the number of groups of suspension data points.
[math]\displaystyle{ N_{i}^{\prime } }[/math] is the number of suspensions in the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] group of suspension data points.
[math]\displaystyle{ T_{i}^{\prime } }[/math] is the running time of the [math]\displaystyle{ {{i}^{th}} }[/math] suspension data group.
[math]\displaystyle{ FI }[/math] is the number of interval data groups.
[math]\displaystyle{ N_{i}^{\prime \prime } }[/math] is the number of intervals in the i [math]\displaystyle{ ^{th} }[/math] group of data intervals.
[math]\displaystyle{ T_{Li}^{\prime \prime } }[/math] is the beginning of the i [math]\displaystyle{ ^{th} }[/math] interval.
[math]\displaystyle{ T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime } }[/math] is the ending of the i [math]\displaystyle{ ^{th} }[/math] interval.

The solution (parameter estimates) will be found by solving for the parameters [math]\displaystyle{ \widehat{K}, }[/math] [math]\displaystyle{ \widehat{n} }[/math] so that [math]\displaystyle{ \tfrac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial K}=0 }[/math] and [math]\displaystyle{ \tfrac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial n}=0 }[/math] , where:



[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} & \frac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial K}= & \frac{1}{K}\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}-\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}V_{i}^{n}{{T}_{i}}-\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }V_{i}^{n}T_{i}^{\prime } \overset{FI}{\mathop{\underset{i=1}{\mathop{-\underset{}{\overset{}{\mathop \sum }}\,}}\,}}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\frac{\left( T_{Li}^{\prime \prime }R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime } \right)V_{i}^{n}}{R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }} \end{align} }[/math]



[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} & \frac{\partial \Lambda }{\partial n}= & \underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}\ln ({{V}_{i}})-K\underset{i=1}{\overset{{{F}_{e}}}{\mathop \sum }}\,{{N}_{i}}V_{i}^{n}\ln ({{V}_{i}}){{T}_{i}} -K\underset{i=1}{\overset{S}{\mathop \sum }}\,N_{i}^{\prime }V_{i}^{n}\ln ({{V}_{i}})T_{i}^{\prime } \overset{FI}{\mathop{\underset{i=1}{\mathop{-\underset{}{\overset{}{\mathop \sum }}\,}}\,}}\,N_{i}^{\prime \prime }\frac{KV_{i}^{n}\ln ({{V}_{i}})\left( T_{Li}{\prime \prime }R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-T_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime } \right)}{R_{Li}^{\prime \prime }-R_{Ri}^{\prime \prime }} \end{align} }[/math]