Logistic Model - Missile Launch Test Example: Difference between revisions
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<noinclude>{{Banner RGA Examples}} | <noinclude>{{Banner RGA Examples}} | ||
''This example appears in the [ | ''This example appears in the [https://help.reliasoft.com/reference/reliability_growth_and_repairable_system_analysis Reliability growth reference]''. | ||
</noinclude> | </noinclude> | ||
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{|border="1" align="center" style="border-collapse: collapse;" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="5" | {|border="1" align="center" style="border-collapse: collapse;" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="5" | ||
|+'''Sequential | |+'''Sequential Success/Failure Data''' | ||
!Launch Number | !Launch Number | ||
!Result | !Result | ||
| Line 60: | Line 60: | ||
<li>The next figure shows the entered data and the estimated parameters. | <li>The next figure shows the entered data and the estimated parameters. | ||
<br> | <br> | ||
[[Image:rga8.11.png | [[Image:rga8.11.png|center|600px]]</li> | ||
<li>The next figure displays the Reliability vs. Time plot. | <li>The next figure displays the Reliability vs. Time plot. | ||
<br> | <br> | ||
[[Image:rga8.12.png | [[Image:rga8.12.png|center|450px]]</li> | ||
<li>The next figure displays | <li>The next figure displays the number of launches before the reliability goal of 99.5% will be achieved with a 90% confidence level. | ||
<br> | <br> | ||
[[Image:rga8.13.png | [[Image:rga8.13.png|center|450px]]</li> | ||
<li>The next figure displays the reliability achieved after the 35th launch. | <li>The next figure displays the reliability achieved after the 35th launch. | ||
<br> | <br> | ||
[[Image:rga8.14.png | [[Image:rga8.14.png|center|450px]]</li> | ||
</ol> | </ol> | ||
Latest revision as of 21:23, 18 September 2023
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This example appears in the Reliability growth reference.
The following table presents the results for a missile launch test. The test consisted of 20 attempts. If the missile launched, it was recorded as a success. If not, it was recorded as a failure. Note that, at this development stage, the test did not consider whether or not the target was destroyed.
- Find a Logistic reliability growth curve that best represents the data.
- Plot it comparatively with the raw data.
- If design changes continue to be incorporated and the testing continues, when will the reliability goal of 99.5% with a 90% confidence level be achieved?
- If design changes continue to be incorporated and the testing continues, what will be the attainable reliability at the end of the 35th launch?
| Launch Number | Result |
|---|---|
| 1 | F |
| 2 | F |
| 3 | S |
| 4 | F |
| 5 | F |
| 6 | S |
| 7 | S |
| 8 | S |
| 9 | F |
| 10 | S |
| 11 | F |
| 12 | S |
| 13 | S |
| 14 | S |
| 15 | S |
| 16 | S |
| 17 | S |
| 18 | S |
| 19 | S |
| 20 | S |
Solution
- The next figure shows the entered data and the estimated parameters.
- The next figure displays the Reliability vs. Time plot.
- The next figure displays the number of launches before the reliability goal of 99.5% will be achieved with a 90% confidence level.
- The next figure displays the reliability achieved after the 35th launch.
