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==Confidence Bounds==
#REDIRECT [[Crow-AMSAA - NHPP]]
This section presents the methods used in the RGA software to estimate the confidence bounds for the Crow-AMSAA model when applied to developmental testing data. RGA provides two methods to estimate the confidence bounds. The Fisher Matrix (FM) method, which is commonly employed in the reliability field, is based on the Fisher information matrix. The Crow Bounds (Crow) method has been developed by Dr. Crow.
{{bounds on beta camsaa-cb}}
 
{{bounds on lambda camsaa-cb}}
 
{{bounds on growth rate camsaa-cb}}
 
{{bounds on cumulative mtbf camsaa-cb}}
 
{{bounds on instantaneous mtbf camsaa-cb}}
 
{{bounds on cumulative failure intensity camsaa-cb}}
 
{{bounds on instantaneous failure intensity camsaa-cb}}
 
{{bounds on time given cumulative failure intensity camsaa-cb}}
 
===Bounds on Time Given Cumulative MTBF===
====Fisher Matrix Bounds====
The time,  <math>T</math> , must be positive, thus  <math>\ln T</math>  is treated as being normally distributed.
::<math>\frac{\ln \hat{T}-\ln T}{\sqrt{Var(\ln \hat{T}})}\ \tilde{\ }\ N(0,1)</math>
<br>
Confidence bounds on the time are given by:
<br>
::<math>CB=\hat{T}{{e}^{\pm {{z}_{\alpha }}\sqrt{Var(\hat{T})}/\hat{T}}}</math>
:where:
::<math>\begin{align}
  & Var(\hat{T})= & {{\left( \frac{\partial T}{\partial \beta } \right)}^{2}}Var(\hat{\beta })+{{\left( \frac{\partial T}{\partial \lambda } \right)}^{2}}Var(\hat{\lambda }) \\
&  & +2\left( \frac{\partial T}{\partial \beta } \right)\left( \frac{\partial T}{\partial \lambda } \right)cov(\hat{\beta },\,\,\,\hat{\lambda }) 
\end{align}</math>
<br>
The variance calculation is the same as Eqn. (variance1) and:
<br>
::<math>\hat{T}={{(\lambda \cdot {{m}_{c}})}^{1/(1-\beta )}}</math>
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & \frac{\partial T}{\partial \beta }= & \frac{{{(\lambda \cdot \,{{m}_{c}})}^{1/(1-\beta )}}\ln (\lambda \cdot \text{ }{{m}_{c}})}{{{(1-\beta )}^{2}}} \\
& \frac{\partial T}{\partial \lambda }= & \frac{{{(\lambda \text{ }\cdot \text{ }{{m}_{c}})}^{1/(1-\beta )}}}{\lambda (1-\beta )} 
\end{align}</math>
 
====Crow Bounds====
:Step 1: Calculate  <math>{{\lambda }_{c}}(T)=\tfrac{1}{MTB{{F}_{c}}}</math> .
:Step 2: Use the equations from 5.2.8.2 to calculate the bounds on time given the cumulative failure intensity.
 
===Bounds on Time Given Instantaneous MTBF===
====Fisher Matrix Bounds====
The time,  <math>T</math> , must be positive, thus  <math>\ln T</math>  is treated as being normally distributed.
 
::<math>\frac{\ln \hat{T}-\ln T}{\sqrt{Var(\ln \hat{T}})}\ \tilde{\ }\ N(0,1)</math>
 
<br>
Confidence bounds on the time are given by:
 
::<math>CB=\hat{T}{{e}^{\pm {{z}_{\alpha }}\sqrt{Var(\hat{T})}/\hat{T}}}</math>
 
<br>
:where:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & Var(\hat{T})= & {{\left( \frac{\partial T}{\partial \beta } \right)}^{2}}Var(\hat{\beta })+{{\left( \frac{\partial T}{\partial \lambda } \right)}^{2}}Var(\hat{\lambda }) \\
&  & +2\left( \frac{\partial T}{\partial \beta } \right)\left( \frac{\partial T}{\partial \lambda } \right)cov(\hat{\beta },\,\,\,\hat{\lambda }) 
\end{align}</math>
 
<br>
The variance calculation is the same as Eqn. (variance1) and:
 
::<math>\hat{T}={{(\lambda \beta \cdot MTB{{F}_{i}})}^{1/(1-\beta )}}</math>
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & \frac{\partial T}{\partial \beta }= & {{\left( \lambda \beta \cdot MTB{{F}_{i}} \right)}^{1/(1-\beta )}}\left[ \frac{1}{{{(1-\beta )}^{2}}}\ln (\lambda \beta \cdot MTB{{F}_{i}})+\frac{1}{\beta (1-\beta )} \right] \\
& \frac{\partial T}{\partial \lambda }= & \frac{{{(\lambda \beta \cdot MTB{{F}_{i}})}^{1/(1-\beta )}}}{\lambda (1-\beta )} 
\end{align}</math>
 
====Crow Bounds====
:Step 1: Calculate the confidence bounds on the instantaneous MTBF as presented in Section 5.5.2.
:Step 2: Calculate the bounds on time as follows.
 
====Failure Terminated Data====
 
::<math>\hat{T}={{(\frac{\lambda \beta \cdot MTB{{F}_{i}}}{c})}^{1/(1-\beta )}}</math>
 
So the lower an upper bounds on time are:
 
::<math>{{\hat{T}}_{L}}={{(\frac{\lambda \beta \cdot MTB{{F}_{i}}}{{{c}_{1}}})}^{1/(1-\beta )}}</math>
 
::<math>{{\hat{T}}_{U}}={{(\frac{\lambda \beta \cdot MTB{{F}_{i}}}{{{c}_{2}}})}^{1/(1-\beta )}}</math>
 
'''Time Terminated Data'''
 
::<math>\hat{T}={{(\frac{\lambda \beta \cdot MTB{{F}_{i}}}{\Pi })}^{1/(1-\beta )}}</math>
<br>
So the lower and upper bounds on time are:
 
::<math>{{\hat{T}}_{L}}={{(\frac{\lambda \beta \cdot MTB{{F}_{i}}}{{{\Pi }_{1}}})}^{1/(1-\beta )}}</math>
 
::<math>{{\hat{T}}_{U}}={{(\frac{\lambda \beta \cdot MTB{{F}_{i}}}{{{\Pi }_{2}}})}^{1/(1-\beta )}}</math>
 
===Bounds on Time Given Instantaneous Failure Intensity===
====Fisher Matrix Bounds====
The time,  <math>T</math> , must be positive, thus  <math>\ln T</math>  is treated as being normally distributed.
 
::<math>\frac{\ln \hat{T}-\ln T}{\sqrt{Var(\ln \hat{T}})}\ \tilde{\ }\ N(0,1)</math>
 
<br>
Confidence bounds on the time are given by:
 
::<math>CB=\hat{T}{{e}^{\pm {{z}_{\alpha }}\sqrt{Var(\hat{T})}/\hat{T}}}</math>
 
<br>
:where:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & Var(\hat{T})= & {{\left( \frac{\partial T}{\partial \beta } \right)}^{2}}Var(\hat{\beta })+{{\left( \frac{\partial T}{\partial \lambda } \right)}^{2}}Var(\hat{\lambda }) \\
&  & +2\left( \frac{\partial T}{\partial \beta } \right)\left( \frac{\partial T}{\partial \lambda } \right)cov(\hat{\beta },\,\,\,\hat{\lambda }) 
\end{align}</math>
 
<br>
The variance calculation is the same as Eqn. (variance1) and: 
 
::<math>\hat{T}={{\left( \frac{{{\lambda }_{i}}(T)}{\lambda \beta } \right)}^{1/(\beta -1)}}</math>
<br>
::<math>\begin{align}
  & \frac{\partial T}{\partial \beta }= & {{\left( \frac{{{\lambda }_{i}}(T)}{\lambda \beta } \right)}^{1/(\beta -1)}}\left[ -\frac{\ln (\tfrac{{{\lambda }_{i}}(T)}{\lambda \beta })}{{{(\beta -1)}^{2}}}+\frac{1}{\beta (1-\beta )} \right] \\
& \frac{\partial T}{\partial \lambda }= & {{\left( \frac{{{\lambda }_{i}}(T)}{\lambda \beta } \right)}^{1/(\beta -1)}}\frac{1}{\lambda (1-\beta )} 
\end{align}</math>
 
====Crow Bounds====
:Step 1: Calculate  <math>MTB{{F}_{i}}=\tfrac{1}{{{\lambda }_{i}}(T)}</math> .
:Step 2: Use the equations from 5.2.10.2 to calculate the bounds on time given the instantaneous failure intensity.
 
===Bounds on Cumulative Number of Failures===
====Fisher Matrix Bounds====
The cumulative number of failures,  <math>N(t)</math> , must be positive, thus  <math>\ln N(t)</math>  is treated as being normally distributed. 
 
::<math>\frac{\ln \hat{N}(t)-\ln N(t)}{\sqrt{Var(\ln \hat{N}(t)})}\ \tilde{\ }\ N(0,1)</math>
 
::<math>N(t)=\hat{N}(t){{e}^{\pm {{z}_{\alpha }}\sqrt{Var(\hat{N}(t))}/\hat{N}(t)}}</math>
 
<br>
:where:
 
::<math>\hat{N}(t)=\hat{\lambda }{{t}^{{\hat{\beta }}}}</math>
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & Var(\hat{N}(t))= & {{\left( \frac{\partial \hat{N}(t)}{\partial \beta } \right)}^{2}}Var(\hat{\beta })+{{\left( \frac{\partial \hat{N}(t)}{\partial \lambda } \right)}^{2}}Var(\hat{\lambda }) \\
&  & +2\left( \frac{\partial \hat{N}(t)}{\partial \beta } \right)\left( \frac{\partial \hat{N}(t)}{\partial \lambda } \right)cov(\hat{\beta },\hat{\lambda }) 
\end{align}</math>
 
The variance calculation is the same as Eqn. (variance1) and:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & \frac{\partial \hat{N}(t)}{\partial \beta }= & \hat{\lambda }{{t}^{{\hat{\beta }}}}\ln t \\
& \frac{\partial \hat{N}(t)}{\partial \lambda }= & {{t}^{{\hat{\beta }}}} 
\end{align}</math>
 
====Crow Bounds====
<br>
The Crow cumulative number of failure confidence bounds are:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{N}_{L}}(T)= & \frac{T}{{\hat{\beta }}}{{\lambda }_{i}}{{(T)}_{L}} \\
& {{N}_{U}}(T)= & \frac{T}{{\hat{\beta }}}{{\lambda }_{i}}{{(T)}_{U}} 
\end{align}</math>
 
<br>
where  <math>{{\lambda }_{i}}{{(T)}_{L}}</math>  and  <math>{{\lambda }_{i}}{{(T)}_{U}}</math>  can be obtained from Eqn. (amsaac14).
<br>
<br>
'''Example 2'''
<br>
Calculate the 90% 2-sided confidence bounds on the cumulative and instantaneous failure intensity for the data from Example 1 given in Table 5.1. 
 
'''Solution'''
'''Fisher Matrix Bounds'''
<br>
Using  <math>\widehat{\beta }</math>  and  <math>\widehat{\lambda }</math>  estimated in Example 1, Eqns. (lambda2partial), (beta2partial) and (lambdabeta2partial) are:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & \frac{{{\partial }^{2}}\Lambda }{\partial {{\lambda }^{2}}}= & -\frac{22}{{{0.4239}^{2}}}=-122.43 \\
& \frac{{{\partial }^{2}}\Lambda }{\partial {{\beta }^{2}}}= & -\frac{22}{{{0.6142}^{2}}}-0.4239\cdot {{620}^{0.6142}}{{(\ln 620)}^{2}}=-967.68 \\
& \frac{{{\partial }^{2}}\Lambda }{\partial \lambda \partial \beta }= & -{{620}^{0.6142}}\ln 620=-333.64 
\end{align}</math>
 
<br>
The Fisher Matrix then becomes:
<br>
For  <math>T=620</math>  hr, the partial derivatives of the cumulative and instantaneous failure intensities are:
 
<br>
::<math>\begin{align}
  & \frac{\partial {{\lambda }_{c}}(T)}{\partial \beta }= & \widehat{\lambda }{{T}^{\widehat{\beta }-1}}\ln (T) \\
& = & 0.4239\cdot {{620}^{-0.3858}}\ln 620 \\
& = & 0.22811336 \\
& \frac{\partial {{\lambda }_{c}}(T)}{\partial \lambda }= & {{T}^{\widehat{\beta }-1}} \\
& = & {{620}^{-0.3858}} \\
& = & 0.083694185 
\end{align}</math>
 
<br>
::<math>\begin{align}
  & \frac{\partial {{\lambda }_{i}}(T)}{\partial \beta }= & \widehat{\lambda }{{T}^{\widehat{\beta }-1}}+\widehat{\lambda }\widehat{\beta }{{T}^{\widehat{\beta }-1}}\ln T \\
& = & 0.4239\cdot {{620}^{-0.3858}}+0.4239\cdot 0.6142\cdot {{620}^{-0.3858}}\ln 620 \\
& = & 0.17558519 
\end{align}</math>
<br>
::<math>\begin{align}
  & \frac{\partial {{\lambda }_{i}}(T)}{\partial \lambda }= & \widehat{\beta }{{T}^{\widehat{\beta }-1}} \\
& = & 0.6142\cdot {{620}^{-0.3858}} \\
& = & 0.051404969 
\end{align}</math>
 
Therefore, the variances become:
 
<br>
The cumulative and instantaneous failure intensities at  <math>T=620</math>  hr are:
<br>
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{\lambda }_{c}}(T)= & 0.03548 \\
& {{\lambda }_{i}}(T)= & 0.02179 
\end{align}</math>
 
So, at the 90% confidence level and for  <math>T=620</math>  hr, the Fisher Matrix confidence bounds for the cumulative failure intensity are:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{[{{\lambda }_{c}}(T)]}_{L}}= & 0.02499 \\
& {{[{{\lambda }_{c}}(T)]}_{U}}= & 0.05039 
\end{align}</math>
 
The confidence bounds for the instantaneous failure intensity are:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{[{{\lambda }_{i}}(T)]}_{L}}= & 0.01327 \\
& {{[{{\lambda }_{i}}(T)]}_{U}}= & 0.03579 
\end{align}</math>
 
Figures 4fig82 and 4fig83 display plots of the Fisher Matrix confidence bounds for the cumulative and instantaneous failure intensity, respectively.
<br>
[[Image:rga5.2.png|thumb|center|400px|Cumulative failure intensity with 2-sided 90% Fisher Matrix confidence bounds.]]
<br>
[[Image:rga5.3.png|thumb|center|400px|Instantaneous failure intensity with 2-sided 90% Fisher Matrix confidence bounds.]]
<br>
'''Crow Bounds'''
<br>
The Crow confidence bounds for the cumulative failure intensity at the 90% confidence level and for  <math>T=620</math>  hr are:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{[{{\lambda }_{c}}(T)]}_{L}}= & \frac{\chi _{\tfrac{\alpha }{2},2N}^{2}}{2\cdot t} \\
& = & \frac{29.787476}{2*620} \\
& = & 0.02402 \\
& {{[{{\lambda }_{c}}(T)]}_{U}}= & \frac{\chi _{1-\tfrac{\alpha }{2},2N+2}^{2}}{2\cdot t} \\
& = & \frac{62.8296}{2*620} \\
& = & 0.05067 
\end{align}</math>
 
The Crow confidence bounds for the instantaneous failure intensity at the 90% confidence level and for  <math>T=620</math>  hr are:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{[{{\lambda }_{i}}(t)]}_{L}}= & \frac{1}{{{[MTB{{F}_{i}}]}_{U}}} \\
& = & \frac{1}{MTB{{F}_{i}}\cdot U} \\
& = & 0.01179 
\end{align}</math>
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{[{{\lambda }_{i}}(t)]}_{U}}= & \frac{1}{{{[MTB{{F}_{i}}]}_{L}}} \\
& = & \frac{1}{MTB{{F}_{i}}\cdot L} \\
& = & 0.03253 
\end{align}</math>
 
Figures 4fig84 and 4fig85 display plots of the Crow confidence bounds for the cumulative and instantaneous failure intensity, respectively.
<br>
[[Image:rga5.4.png|thumb|center|400px|Cumulative failure intensity with 2-sided 90% Crow confidence bounds.]]
<br>
[[Image:rga5.5.png|thumb|center|400px|Instantaneous failure intensity with 2-sided 90% Crow confidence bounds.]]
<br>
::<math>\begin{align}
  & Var(\widehat{\lambda })= & 0.13519969 \\
& Var(\widehat{\beta })= & 0.017105343 \\
& Cov(\widehat{\beta },\widehat{\lambda })= & -0.046614609 
\end{align}</math>
'''Example 3'''
<br>
Calculate the confidence bounds on the cumulative and instantaneous MTBF for the data in Table 5.1.
<br>
'''Solution'''
<br>
'''Fisher Matrix Bounds'''
<br>
From the previous example:
 
And for  <math>T=620</math>  hr, the partial derivatives of the cumulative and instantaneous MTBF are:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & \frac{\partial {{m}_{c}}(T)}{\partial \beta }= & -\frac{1}{\widehat{\lambda }}{{T}^{1-\widehat{\beta }}}\ln T \\
& = & -\frac{1}{0.4239}{{620}^{0.3858}}\ln 620 \\
& = & -181.23135 \\
& \frac{\partial {{m}_{c}}(T)}{\partial \lambda }= & -\frac{1}{{{\widehat{\lambda }}^{2}}}{{T}^{1-\widehat{\beta }}} \\
& = & -\frac{1}{{{0.4239}^{2}}}{{620}^{0.3858}} \\
& = & -66.493299 \\
& \frac{\partial {{m}_{i}}(T)}{\partial \beta }= & -\frac{1}{\widehat{\lambda }{{\widehat{\beta }}^{2}}}{{T}^{1-\beta }}-\frac{1}{\widehat{\lambda }\widehat{\beta }}{{T}^{1-\widehat{\beta }}}\ln T \\
& = & -\frac{1}{0.4239\cdot {{0.6142}^{2}}}{{620}^{0.3858}}-\frac{1}{0.4239\cdot 0.6142}{{620}^{0.3858}}\ln 620 \\
& = & -369.78634 \\
& \frac{\partial {{m}_{i}}(T)}{\partial \lambda }= & -\frac{1}{{{\widehat{\lambda }}^{2}}\widehat{\beta }}{{T}^{1-\widehat{\beta }}} \\
& = & -\frac{1}{{{0.4239}^{2}}\cdot 0.6142}\cdot {{620}^{0.3858}} \\
& = & -108.26001 
\end{align}</math>
 
Therefore, the variances become:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & Var({{\widehat{m}}_{c}}(T))= & {{\left( -181.23135 \right)}^{2}}\cdot 0.017105343+{{\left( -66.493299 \right)}^{2}}\cdot 0.13519969 \\
&  & -2\cdot \left( -181.23135 \right)\cdot \left( -66.493299 \right)\cdot 0.046614609 \\
& = & 36.113376 
\end{align}</math>
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & Var({{\widehat{m}}_{i}}(T))= & {{\left( -369.78634 \right)}^{2}}\cdot 0.017105343+{{\left( -108.26001 \right)}^{2}}\cdot 0.13519969 \\
&  & -2\cdot \left( -369.78634 \right)\cdot \left( -108.26001 \right)\cdot 0.046614609 \\
& = & 191.33709 
\end{align}</math>
 
So, at 90% confidence level and  <math>T=620</math>  hr, the Fisher Matrix confidence bounds are:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{[{{m}_{c}}(T)]}_{L}}= & {{{\hat{m}}}_{c}}(t){{e}^{-{{z}_{\alpha }}\sqrt{Var({{{\hat{m}}}_{c}}(t))}/{{{\hat{m}}}_{c}}(t)}} \\
& = & 19.84581 \\
& {{[{{m}_{c}}(T)]}_{U}}= & {{{\hat{m}}}_{c}}(t){{e}^{{{z}_{\alpha }}\sqrt{Var({{{\hat{m}}}_{c}}(t))}/{{{\hat{m}}}_{c}}(t)}} \\
& = & 40.01927 
\end{align}</math>
<br>
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{[{{m}_{i}}(T)]}_{L}}= & {{{\hat{m}}}_{i}}(t){{e}^{-{{z}_{\alpha }}\sqrt{Var({{{\hat{m}}}_{i}}(t))}/{{{\hat{m}}}_{i}}(t)}} \\
& = & 27.94261 \\
& {{[{{m}_{i}}(T)]}_{U}}= & {{{\hat{m}}}_{i}}(t){{e}^{{{z}_{\alpha }}\sqrt{Var({{{\hat{m}}}_{i}}(t))}/{{{\hat{m}}}_{i}}(t)}} \\
& = & 75.34193 
\end{align}</math>
 
Figures 4fig86 and 4fig87 show plots of the Fisher Matrix confidence bounds for the cumulative and instantaneous MTBFs.
<br>
[[Image:rga5.6.png|thumb|center|400px|Cumulative MTBF with 2-sided 90% Fisher Matrix confidence bounds.]]
<br>
<br>
[[Image:rga5.7.png|thumb|center|400px|Instantaneous MTBF with 2-sided Fisher Matrix confidence bounds.]]
<br>
'''Crow Bounds'''
<br>
The Crow confidence bounds for the cumulative MTBF and the instantaneous MTBF at the 90% confidence level and for  <math>T=620</math>  hr are:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{[{{m}_{c}}(T)]}_{L}}= & \frac{1}{{{[{{\lambda }_{c}}(T)]}_{U}}} \\
& = & 20.5023 \\
& {{[{{m}_{c}}(T)]}_{U}}= & \frac{1}{{{[{{\lambda }_{c}}(T)]}_{L}}} \\
& = & 41.6282 
\end{align}</math>
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{[MTB{{F}_{i}}]}_{L}}= & MTB{{F}_{i}}\cdot {{\Pi }_{1}} \\
& = & 30.7445 \\
& {{[MTB{{F}_{i}}]}_{U}}= & MTB{{F}_{i}}\cdot {{\Pi }_{2}} \\
& = & 84.7972 
\end{align}</math>
 
Figures 4fig88 and 4fig89 show plots of the Crow confidence bounds for the cumulative and instantaneous MTBF.
<br>
[[Image:rga5.8.png|thumb|center|400px|Cumulative MTBF with 2-sided 90% Crow confidence bounds.]]
<br>
[[Image:rga5.9.png|thumb|center|400px|Instantaneous MTBF with 2-sided 90% Crow confidence bounds.]]
Confidence bounds can also be obtained on the parameters  <math>\widehat{\beta }</math>  and  <math>\widehat{\lambda }</math> . For Fisher Matrix confidence bounds:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{\beta }_{L}}= & \hat{\beta }{{e}^{{{z}_{\alpha }}\sqrt{Var(\hat{\beta })}/\hat{\beta }}} \\
& = & 0.4325 \\
& {{\beta }_{U}}= & \hat{\beta }{{e}^{-{{z}_{\alpha }}\sqrt{Var(\hat{\beta })}/\hat{\beta }}} \\
& = & 0.8722 
\end{align}</math>
<br>
:and:
<br>
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{\lambda }_{L}}= & \hat{\lambda }{{e}^{{{z}_{\alpha }}\sqrt{Var(\hat{\lambda })}/\hat{\lambda }}} \\
& = & 0.1016 \\
& {{\lambda }_{U}}= & \hat{\lambda }{{e}^{-{{z}_{\alpha }}\sqrt{Var(\hat{\lambda })}/\hat{\lambda }}} \\
& = & 1.7691 
\end{align}</math>
<br>
For Crow confidence bounds:
 
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{\beta }_{L}}= & 0.4527 \\
& {{\beta }_{U}}= & 0.9350 
\end{align}</math>
<br>
:and:
<br>
::<math>\begin{align}
  & {{\lambda }_{L}}= & 0.2870 \\
& {{\lambda }_{U}}= & 0.5827 
\end{align}</math>

Latest revision as of 00:48, 24 August 2012

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