Template:Why are reliability growth models needed?
Why Are Reliability Growth Models Needed?
In order to effectively manage a reliability growth program and attain the reliability goals, it is imperative that valid reliability assessments of the system be available. Assessments of interest generally include estimating the current reliability of the system configuration under test and estimating the projected increase in reliability if proposed corrective actions are incorporated into the system. These and other metrics give management information on what actions to take in order to attain the reliability goals. Reliability growth assessments are made in a dynamic environment where the reliability is changing due to corrective actions. The objective of most reliability growth models is to account for this changing situation in order to estimate the current and future reliability and other metrics of interest. The decision for choosing a particular growth model is typically based on how well it is expected to provide useful information to management and engineering. Reliability growth can be quantified by looking at various metrics of interest such as the increase in the MTBF, the decrease in the failure intensity or the increase in the mission success probability, which are generally mathematically related and can be derived from each other. All key estimates used in reliability growth management such as demonstrated reliability, projected reliability and estimates of the growth potential can generally be expressed in terms of the MTBF, failure intensity or mission reliability. Changes in these values, typically as a function of test time, are collectively called reliability growth trends and are usually presented as reliability growth curves. These curves are often constructed based on certain mathematical and statistical models called reliability growth models. The ability to accurately estimate the demonstrated reliability and calculate projections to some point in the future can help determine the following:
• Whether the stated reliability requirements will be achieved
• The associated time for meeting such requirements
• The associated costs of meeting such requirements
• The correlation of reliability changes with reliability activities
In addition, demonstrated reliability and projections assessments aid in:
• Establishing warranties
• Planning for maintenance resources and logistic activities
• Life-cycle-cost analysis